Global tourism to hit 30 billion trips by 2034
India, China to lead outbound travel surge by 2030
DUBAI: Global travel is surging at an unprecedented pace, outstripping economic growth and reshaping international priorities.
According to a newly released report from the World Economic Forum, produced in collaboration with Kearney and the Ministry of Tourism, Saudi Arabia, the travel and tourism industry is projected to serve a staggering 30 billion tourist trips by 2034. This growth is accompanied by an estimated $16 trillion contribution to global GDP – more than 11% of the entire world economy, based on figures from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC).
The report, Travel and Tourism at a Turning Point: Principles for Transformative Growth, highlights the sector’s accelerating momentum – expanding 1.5 times faster than global economic growth. While this upward trend presents major commercial opportunities, it also brings significant responsibilities. The sector must overcome challenges such as climate change, workforce shortages, and infrastructure deficits to fully realise its potential.
Regional powerhouses
Asia is positioned to take the lead as the world’s fastest-growing tourism economy. The region’s direct travel and tourism GDP contribution is expected to exceed 7% by 2034. Within this surge, India and China are anticipated to dominate outbound travel, together accounting for more than 25% of international departures by 2030.
Other countries including Sri Lanka, Thailand, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia are also riding the wave of increased investment in tourism infrastructure. These nations are witnessing a rise in international arrivals and tourism-linked business activities, significantly boosting their global visibility.
Emerging segments
High-growth niches are playing a critical role in shaping the next phase of travel. Sports tourism is projected to reach a market value of $1.7 trillion by 2032, while ecotourism is expanding at a compound annual growth rate of 14%.
Technology is proving equally vital. The global travel tech market, currently valued at $10.5 billion, is expected to nearly double by 2033. A striking 91% of industry technology leaders foresee intensified investment across digital tools and innovations.
To meet the surging demand, the industry will require massive expansion: 7 million additional hotel rooms and 15 million more annual flights. Supporting infrastructure must also evolve to handle the forecasted 30 billion trips.
Environmental and workforce pressures
The report issues stark warnings regarding sustainability and labour. Travel and tourism currently account for 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Without systemic interventions, this figure could climb to 15% by 2034. The waste generated by tourists is also projected to balloon, potentially reaching 205 million tons per year – representing 7% of global solid waste.
Staffing is another critical hurdle. In the UK, the tourism sector experienced a 53% employee turnover rate between 2022 and 2023. Across the Atlantic, the US hospitality industry continues to struggle with hiring, despite offering wages 16% above inflation.
Without proactive measures, these issues could result in up to $6 trillion in lost revenue by 2030. The industry risks missing its chance to become a key driver of inclusive economic resilience, cultural connection, and environmental restoration.
Call for action
According to Børge Brende, President and CEO of the World Economic Forum, “the sector’s potential to drive inclusive prosperity and environmental regeneration is immense.” However, he noted this promise can only be fulfilled through sweeping transformation and multi-stakeholder collaboration – from standardising sustainable fuel to involving local communities in planning.
Ahmed Al-Khateeb, Minister of Tourism for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, emphasised the broader impact of tourism. “It is not just a siloed, standalone industry – it is an engine for economic growth, cultural understanding, and international cooperation,” he stated. Saudi Arabia is planning to welcome 150 million visitors by 2030, backed by substantial investments in regenerative destinations, advanced infrastructure, and talent development.
Bob Willen, Managing Partner and Chairman at Kearney, echoed the sentiment, urging industry-wide adoption of responsible technology, community-focused planning, and green infrastructure. “It’s about creating a travel and tourism sector that’s not just bigger, but works in everyone’s interests,” he added.
The report draws upon global data, expert interviews and modelling to provide a detailed roadmap for steering the future of tourism towards sustainability and inclusivity. As the travel sector enters a new era, its direction will be determined by how effectively it responds to the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.