Dubai gold stays below Dh403 amid global price volatility
UAE central bank gold holdings cross Dh27.4 billion in early 2025
DUBAI’s gold prices slipped marginally on Thursday, easing from Tuesday’s sharp surge that had pushed rates to their highest in weeks.
As of July 17 (Thursday), the 24K rate stands at Dh402.75 per gram, down slightly from Dh405.31 on Tuesday, though a modest rise from Wednesday’s Dh402.50. The 22K rate is Dh372.75, compared to Dh375.26 on Tuesday and Dh372.50 on Wednesday. Similarly, 21K is now Dh357.50, recovering slightly from Wednesday’s Dh357.00 but still lower than Tuesday’s Dh358.19. The 18K price is Dh306.50, up from Dh306.00 on Wednesday and just below Tuesday’s Dh307.02.
The fluctuation reflects wider global dynamics that have seen gold remain among the strongest-performing assets of 2025.
Global gold momentum
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold surged 26 percent in US dollar terms during the first half of 2025, achieving 26 new all-time highs (ATHs) in just six months. The rally was largely driven by a weaker US dollar – its worst start to a year since 1973 – combined with stable interest rates and elevated geopolitical uncertainty.
These factors not only supported safe-haven demand but also encouraged institutional inflows as gold outperformed equities, bonds, and other major asset classes during H1 2025.
Gold price outlook: 3 scenarios
In its Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2025, the WGC outlines three possible trajectories for gold in the second half:
- Base case: Prices see a 0–5 percent uptick, driven by continued policy stability and gradual normalisation.
- Bullish case: A further 10–15 percent increase if macroeconomic instability, such as persistent inflation or geopolitical tensions, intensifies.
- Bearish case: A potential 12–17 percent decline if global trade conditions improve and risk appetite strengthens.
These scenarios reflect uncertainty over the path of inflation, rate decisions, and dollar performance heading into Q3 and Q4.
UAE gold reserves surge
The UAE’s appetite for gold has also grown significantly. As per data released by the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), gold reserves rose 19.3 percent in Q1 2025 alone, adding Dh4.444 billion and pushing the total to Dh27.425 billion ($7.46 billion) by the end of March, compared to Dh22.981 billion at the close of 2024.
This increase follows a strong upward trend observed throughout 2024. In Q3 2024, gold reserves crossed Dh23 billion ($6.3 billion), with a 5.3 percent month-on-month rise in August alone. Since the beginning of 2024, UAE’s gold holdings have expanded over 27.76 percent, an increase of more than Dh5 billion from Dh18.147 billion at the end of 2023.
In parallel, the CBUAE reported that demand deposit balances exceeded Dh1.147 trillion by March 2025, with Dh856.062 billion held in dirhams and Dh291.116 billion in foreign currencies.