Ramadan weather forecast: Moderate days, cool nights and limited rain expected in UAE
Inland areas may see sharp temperature swings overnight
DUBAI – Weather conditions across the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are expected to remain generally moderate during Ramadan this year, with forecasts pointing to seasonal winter patterns, mild daytime temperatures and relatively cool nights.
The fasting month falls between the second half of February and the first half of March, placing it firmly within the winter climate window. According to the official monthly outlook, most regions will experience stable conditions with only limited rainfall activity.
The forecast was issued by the National Centre of Meteorology, which outlined temperature trends, rainfall probabilities, humidity levels and wind behaviour expected during the holy month.
Temperature trend
Daytime temperatures are projected to stay moderate during the first half of Ramadan, with a slight rise expected toward the second half. Average maximum temperatures during this period typically range between 26°C and 32°C across the country. In some inland locations, midday readings can still climb as high as 40°C.
Night-time conditions are forecast to be moderate to pleasant overall, turning relatively cool during late night and early morning hours. Inland and mountainous areas are likely to feel the sharpest drops. Average minimum temperatures range between 18°C and 21°C, while certain elevated and inland spots may see readings near or below 0°C just before sunrise.
Fasting hours are also set to lengthen gradually through the month. In Abu Dhabi and nearby areas, daily fasting time begins at about 12 hours and 46 minutes and increases to roughly 13 hours and 25 minutes by the end of Ramadan, with small geographic variations of a few minutes.
Rainfall outlook
Seasonal weather patterns during this time are usually influenced by the extension of the Siberian high-pressure system. Periodic weakening of this system can allow passing low-pressure systems from the west or east. When these interact with upper-level troughs, cloud formation may increase and rainfall chances can rise in parts of the country.
Long-range projections indicate that total rainfall during the month is likely to be around or below the seasonal average of about 8 mm. Historical records show that the highest 24-hour rainfall for this period reached 287.6 mm in Al Shuwaib on 9 March 2016, marking one of the most intense single-day totals recorded for the month.
Fog and winds
Humidity levels are expected to climb during the night and early morning hours, creating favourable conditions for fog and mist in scattered areas. Average maximum relative humidity during these hours ranges from 70% to 85%, while daytime minimum relative humidity typically falls between 20% and 35%.
Wind patterns are forecast to follow the usual land and sea breeze cycle, with southeasterly winds during the night and morning, shifting to northwesterly by afternoon and evening. Average wind speeds hover near 13 km/h. At times, stronger pressure systems may trigger more active winds, causing blowing dust and sand in open areas. The strongest wind gust on record for this period reached 141 km/h at Jebel Mebreh on 27 February 2010.